| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.3% | 71% | -13.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.4% | 89% | -8.9% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 73.2% | 86% | -13.0% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% | 71% | -8.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 58.9% | 22.0% | 19.1% |
| xgboost | 59.0% | 17.9% | 23.1% |
| logistic | 64.2% | 21.7% | 14.1% |
| Hoffenheim | Hamburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1632 | 1557 |
| Surface Elo | 1632 | 1557 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.50 | 3.25 |
| Rest days | 19 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Paderborn | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | SV Meppen 1912 | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Stuttgart | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Borussia Dortmund | 2 - 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | FC Koln | 2 - 3 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Copenhagen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | FC Koln | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | RB Leipzig | 0 - 5 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Mainz | 0 - 5 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Borussia Dortmund | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Hamburg | 1 - 2 | Hoffenheim |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Hoffenheim | 4 - 1 | Hamburg |
| 14 Apr 2018 | Hoffenheim | 2 - 0 | Hamburg |
| 26 Nov 2017 | Hamburg | 3 - 0 | Hoffenheim |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 7.00 | 14.3% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.75 | 21.1% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.40 | 71.4% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.36 | 73.5% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.20 | 31.2% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 7.38 | 13.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.78 | 17.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.41 | 70.9% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.40 | 71.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.10 | 32.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |