| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.3% | 59% | +0.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| logistic | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| Thiago Monteiro | Elmer Moller | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1658 | 1610 |
| Surface Elo | 1658 | 1610 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 13 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Mika Petkovic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Mika Petkovic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Vilius Gaubas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Zsombor Piros | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Monteiro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Elmer Moller | 2 - 1 | Thiago Monteiro |
| 14 Apr 2025 | Elmer Moller | 2 - 1 | Thiago Monteiro |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.96 | 51.0% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.79 | 55.9% | 05 Oct 06:15 |