| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 67.2% | 63% | +4.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 57.1% | 42.8% |
| logistic | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1792 | 1615 |
| Surface Elo | 1792 | 1615 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 5 | 15 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Shintaro Mochizuki | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Nuno Borges | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Nuno Borges | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | H | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Mattia Bellucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Yosuke Watanuki | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Dane Sweeny | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Jaime Faria | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 0 - 2 | Shintaro Mochizuki |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.62 | 61.7% | 13 Oct 06:15 |