OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-22
⚽ England EFL Trophy · Tuesday 22 September 2026, 18:00 UTC · finished
Cheltenham 1.80 2 - 2 0.60 Exeter
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 55.9%42%+14.2%✗ miss
DCHome or away 79.5%80%-0.7%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 68.6%56%+12.8%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 43.8%64%-19.8%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 45.1%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson38.1%27.7%34.3%
xgboost42.5%28.4%29.0%
logistic45.8%27.8%26.4%
Inputs the models saw
CheltenhamExeter
Elo (pre-match)14431403
Surface Elo14431403
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.800.60
Form trend0.00-0.10
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days33
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W4 W · 2 D
Cheltenham: last 5
19 SepAColchester1 - 1D
19 SepAColchester1 - 1D
12 SepACrawley Town3 - 1W
05 SepHGrimsby2 - 2D
01 SepHYork3 - 2W
Exeter: last 5
19 SepHTranmere0 - 0D
19 SepHTranmere0 - 0D
12 SepAPort Vale0 - 1L
05 SepHWalsall0 - 0D
01 SepHBarnet1 - 1D
Head to head
01 Apr 2024Cheltenham1 - 2Exeter
16 Sep 2023Exeter1 - 0Cheltenham
18 Mar 2023Cheltenham3 - 1Exeter
20 Aug 2022Exeter0 - 1Cheltenham
13 Mar 2021Exeter0 - 1Cheltenham
05 Dec 2020Cheltenham5 - 3Exeter
16 Nov 2019Exeter0 - 0Cheltenham
06 Apr 2019Cheltenham1 - 1Exeter
22 Sep 2018Exeter3 - 1Cheltenham
02 Apr 2018Exeter2 - 1Cheltenham
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.7037.0%22 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.6027.8%22 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.4041.7%22 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6062.5%22 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.3043.5%22 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:27 UTC