| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 45.2% | 32% | +13.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.7% | 78% | -4.1% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 58.8% | 43% | +15.6% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 48% | +6.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.8% | 26.5% | 26.7% |
| xgboost | 41.6% | 31.2% | 27.2% |
| logistic | 34.3% | 29.8% | 36.0% |
| Rochdale | Grimsby | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1554 | 1449 |
| Surface Elo | 1554 | 1449 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Crewe | 2 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Crewe | 2 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Tranmere | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Tranmere | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Oct | A | Huddersfield | 0 - 5 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Northampton | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Northampton | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0 - 1 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Burton | 0 - 0 | D |
| 11 Mar 2023 | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | Rochdale |
| 13 Aug 2022 | Rochdale | 0 - 1 | Grimsby |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 20 Oct 06:15 |