| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 79.3% | 95% | -15.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 79.5% | 20.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 93.3% | 6.7% |
| logistic | 83.0% | 17.0% |
| Matej Dodig | Joao Domingues | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1849 | 1430 |
| Surface Elo | 1849 | 1430 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.67 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.89 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.44 | 0.83 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Marco Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Marco Cecchinato | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Joao Domingues | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Francesco Passaro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Tristan Boyer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Leote Prata, Vasco | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Ivan Gakhov | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Andrej Martin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Vilius Gaubas | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Joao Domingues | 0 - 2 | Matej Dodig |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 8.40 | 11.9% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.05 | 95.2% | 20 Oct 06:15 |