| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 78.6% | 83% | -4.7% |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 17.4% | 82.6% |
| logistic | 13.6% | 86.4% |
| markov | abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0) | |
| Casper Ruud | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1960 | 2341 |
| Surface Elo | 1960 | 2341 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 6 W 路 0 D |
| 07 Nov | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Nov | H | Nuno Borges | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Nov | H | Nuno Borges | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Nov | A | Jan Lennard Struff | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | Rodrigo Alujas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Nov | H | Casper Ruud | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Nov | A | Taylor Fritz | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Taylor Fritz | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Nov | A | Matteo Berrettini | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Casper Ruud |
| 12 Mar 2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Casper Ruud |
| 24 Sep 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 1 | Casper Ruud |
| 11 Nov 2024 | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | Casper Ruud |
| 27 Sep 2023 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Casper Ruud |
| 29 Aug 2022 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3 - 1 | Casper Ruud |
| 21 Mar 2022 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Casper Ruud |
| 05 Apr 2021 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Casper Ruud |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.20 | 83.3% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| 1xBet | h2h | Casper Ruud | 4.76 | 21.0% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| 888sport | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.20 | 83.3% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| 888sport | h2h | Casper Ruud | 4.50 | 22.2% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| BetAnything | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.18 | 84.8% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| BetAnything | h2h | Casper Ruud | 4.80 | 20.8% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Betclic (FR) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.16 | 86.2% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Betclic (FR) | h2h | Casper Ruud | 4.20 | 23.8% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.22 | 82.0% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Casper Ruud | 5.40 | 18.5% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.23 | 81.3% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Casper Ruud | 5.60 | 17.9% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.19 | 84.0% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Casper Ruud | 4.96 | 20.2% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Betsson | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.19 | 84.0% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Betsson | h2h | Casper Ruud | 4.80 | 20.8% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Coolbet | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.20 | 83.3% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Coolbet | h2h | Casper Ruud | 5.00 | 20.0% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| GTbets | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.17 | 85.5% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| GTbets | h2h | Casper Ruud | 5.04 | 19.8% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.17 | 85.5% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | h2h | Casper Ruud | 5.00 | 20.0% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.19 | 84.0% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Casper Ruud | 5.20 | 19.2% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.24 | 80.7% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Casper Ruud | 6.40 | 15.6% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Nordic Bet | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.19 | 84.0% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Nordic Bet | h2h | Casper Ruud | 4.80 | 20.8% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.20 | 83.3% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Casper Ruud | 5.16 | 19.4% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.13 | 88.5% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Casper Ruud | 4.60 | 21.7% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.20 | 83.3% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.90 | 20.4% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| Tipico | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.16 | 86.2% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Tipico | h2h | Casper Ruud | 5.00 | 20.0% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (FR) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.15 | 87.0% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (FR) | h2h | Casper Ruud | 4.35 | 23.0% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.17 | 85.5% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Casper Ruud | 5.00 | 20.0% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.17 | 85.5% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Casper Ruud | 5.00 | 20.0% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| William Hill | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.20 | 83.3% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| William Hill | h2h | Casper Ruud | 4.50 | 22.2% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.19 | 84.0% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Casper Ruud | 4.70 | 21.3% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.16 | 86.2% | 07 Nov 06:01 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Casper Ruud | 4.10 | 24.4% | 07 Nov 06:01 |