OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-09
⚽ Germany Bundesliga · Friday 09 October 2026, 18:30 UTC · finished
Borussia Dortmund 3.00 2 - 2 1.40 Werder Bremen
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 61.6%74%-12.0%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 85.2%90%-4.8%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 79.3%88%-8.3%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 56.2%72%-15.4%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 56.4%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson70.6%17.7%11.7%
xgboost67.1%18.1%14.8%
logistic72.9%18.2%8.9%
Inputs the models saw
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
Elo (pre-match)18201560
Surface Elo18201560
Form, last 5 (PPG)3.001.40
Form trend0.00-0.70
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days2020
Head-to-head (last 10)7 W1 W · 2 D
Borussia Dortmund: last 5
19 SepAStuttgart1 - 0W
12 SepHPaderborn3 - 0W
05 SepAHoffenheim3 - 2W
29 AugHHamburg2 - 0W
16 MayAWerder Bremen2 - 0W
Werder Bremen: last 5
19 SepHAugsburg3 - 2W
12 SepAFC Koln1 - 1D
05 SepHRB Leipzig3 - 1W
30 AugAFreiburg1 - 4L
16 MayHBorussia Dortmund0 - 2L
Head to head
16 May 2026Werder Bremen0 - 2Borussia Dortmund
13 Jan 2026Borussia Dortmund3 - 0Werder Bremen
25 Jan 2025Borussia Dortmund2 - 2Werder Bremen
31 Aug 2024Werder Bremen0 - 0Borussia Dortmund
09 Mar 2024Werder Bremen1 - 2Borussia Dortmund
20 Oct 2023Borussia Dortmund1 - 0Werder Bremen
11 Feb 2023Werder Bremen0 - 2Borussia Dortmund
20 Aug 2022Borussia Dortmund2 - 3Werder Bremen
18 Apr 2021Borussia Dortmund4 - 1Werder Bremen
15 Dec 2020Werder Bremen1 - 2Borussia Dortmund
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away8.8111.3%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw6.4015.6%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.3375.2%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.3971.9%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under3.1032.3%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:20 UTC