| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.0% | 60% | -7.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 46.1% | 53.8% |
| logistic | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| Alex Marti Pujolras | John Sperle | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1387 | 1413 |
| Surface Elo | 1387 | 1413 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 7 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 04 Oct | H | Filippo Moroni | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Ignacio Parisca | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Stefano Napolitano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Dimitar Kuzmanov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Gerard Campana Lee | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Vlad Cristian Breazu | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | H | Matthias Ujvary | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Lorenzo Giustino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Franco Agamenone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.68 | 59.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |