| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.2% | 69% | -6.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 36.7% | 63.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 28.5% | 71.4% |
| logistic | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1667 | 1773 |
| Surface Elo | 1667 | 1773 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 13 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | H | Ilia Simakin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Federico Cina | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Federico Cina | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | H | Rodrigo Alujas | 0 - 3 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Moez Echargui | 0 - 1 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Luka Pavlovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Sep | A | Blake Ellis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Hunter Heck | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct 2026 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 1 | Ilia Simakin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.44 | 69.4% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.90 | 34.5% | 07 Oct 06:15 |