| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 72.7% | 81% | -7.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 10.0% | 89.9% |
| logistic | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| Joao Eduardo Schiessl | Luis "Guto" Miguel | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1451 | 1541 |
| Surface Elo | 1451 | 1541 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | A | Samuel Heredia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Samuel Heredia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Nicolas Zanellato | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Giovanni Branchetti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Facundo Mena | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Joao Eduardo Schiessl | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Facundo Mena | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Aidan Mayo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl | 0 - 2 | Luis "Guto" Miguel |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.24 | 80.7% | 01 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.80 | 26.3% | 01 Oct 06:15 |