| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.5% | 59% | +0.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 52.0% | 33.3% |
| xgboost | 67.8% | 30.7% |
| logistic | 65.6% | 34.4% |
| Edmonton Oilers | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1560 | 1426 |
| Surface Elo | 1560 | 1426 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 4.70 | 3.58 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.20 | 3.25 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 6 - 5 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Minnesota Wild | 4 - 3 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Utah Utah Hockey Club | 6 - 2 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Utah Utah Hockey Club | 2 - 4 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | Los Angeles Kings | 4 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | New York Rangers | 5 - 4 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Columbus Blue Jackets | 6 - 2 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | San Jose Sharks | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | New York Islanders | 1 - 4 | L |
| 15 Oct | H | Buffalo Sabres | 4 - 5 | L |
| 04 Feb 2026 | Edmonton Oilers | 2 - 5 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 14 Dec 2025 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 3 - 6 | Edmonton Oilers |
| 02 Feb 2025 | Edmonton Oilers | 3 - 4 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 17 Nov 2024 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 4 - 3 | Edmonton Oilers |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.69 | 59.2% | 24 Oct 21:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 24 Oct 21:20 |