| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.7% | 43% | +6.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.5% | 85% | -9.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.4% | 54% | +7.1% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 69% | -14.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.0% | 24.6% | 37.4% |
| xgboost | 42.0% | 27.9% | 30.1% |
| logistic | 39.9% | 27.7% | 32.4% |
| Reading | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1516 | 1545 |
| Surface Elo | 1516 | 1545 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 19 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 5 W · 3 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Bradford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Bradford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Wycombe | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Wycombe | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Notts County | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Bolton | 3 - 4 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Bolton | 3 - 4 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Middlesbrough | 3 - 4 | L |
| 09 Sep | H | Birmingham | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Sheffield Utd | 3 - 1 | W |
| 30 Dec 2022 | Norwich | 1 - 1 | Reading |
| 04 Oct 2022 | Reading | 1 - 1 | Norwich |
| 01 May 2021 | Norwich | 4 - 1 | Reading |
| 16 Dec 2020 | Reading | 1 - 2 | Norwich |
| 10 Apr 2019 | Norwich | 2 - 2 | Reading |
| 19 Sep 2018 | Reading | 1 - 2 | Norwich |
| 17 Mar 2018 | Norwich | 3 - 2 | Reading |
| 30 Sep 2017 | Reading | 1 - 2 | Norwich |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.25 | 23.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.45 | 69.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.65 | 37.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |