| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.4% | 55% | -2.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 45.2% | 54.7% |
| logistic | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| Elise Mertens | Leylah Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1786 | 1730 |
| Surface Elo | 1786 | 1730 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.71 | 2.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.14 | 1.78 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.14 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 5 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Leylah Fernandez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Daria Snigur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Daria Snigur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Qinwen Zheng | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Iga Swiatek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Elena Rybakina | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Marie Bouzkova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Elise Mertens | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Elise Mertens | 1 - 2 | Leylah Fernandez |
| 17 Feb 2025 | Elise Mertens | 2 - 0 | Leylah Fernandez |
| 18 Sep 2023 | Elise Mertens | 0 - 2 | Leylah Fernandez |
| 08 Feb 2021 | Elise Mertens | 2 - 0 | Leylah Fernandez |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.81 | 55.2% | 18 Oct 06:15 |