| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 45.7% | 39% | +6.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.0% | 81% | -6.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 59.6% | 52% | +7.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 68% | -13.7% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.4% | 24.3% | 36.3% |
| xgboost | 32.7% | 26.2% | 41.1% |
| logistic | 29.4% | 27.9% | 42.7% |
| Fylde | Carlisle | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1425 | 1510 |
| Surface Elo | 1425 | 1510 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Boston Utd | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Boston Utd | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Altrincham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Altrincham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | Harrogate | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Woking | 2 - 5 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Woking | 2 - 5 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Eastleigh | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Eastleigh | 0 - 1 | L |
| 15 Sep | H | Forest Green | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.65 | 37.7% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.47 | 68.0% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.65 | 37.7% | 29 Sep 06:15 |