| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.9% | 49% | -0.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.7% | 78% | -3.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.4% | 67% | -4.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 56% | +2.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.5% | 27.0% | 36.5% |
| xgboost | 41.8% | 28.4% | 29.8% |
| logistic | 43.4% | 29.3% | 27.3% |
| Nancy | Guingamp | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1408 | 1394 |
| Surface Elo | 1408 | 1394 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 20 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 4 D |
| 02 Oct | A | 1. FC Saarbrucken | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep | A | Rodez | 4 - 3 | W |
| 11 Sep | H | Reims | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Nantes | 0 - 1 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | Dunkerque | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Red Star | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Red Star | 1 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Annecy | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Reims | 2 - 2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | Nantes | 3 - 3 | D |
| 19 Jan 2026 | Nancy | 0 - 3 | Guingamp |
| 03 Oct 2025 | Guingamp | 2 - 2 | Nancy |
| 19 Mar 2022 | Guingamp | 3 - 1 | Nancy |
| 16 Oct 2021 | Nancy | 2 - 1 | Guingamp |
| 16 Jan 2021 | Guingamp | 0 - 0 | Nancy |
| 29 Aug 2020 | Nancy | 2 - 2 | Guingamp |
| 15 Feb 2020 | Nancy | 0 - 1 | Guingamp |
| 13 Sep 2019 | Guingamp | 1 - 1 | Nancy |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.70 | 27.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.99 | 50.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.81 | 55.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.97 | 50.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |