OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-14
⚽ England League Two · Saturday 14 November 2026, 15:00 UTC · scheduled
Swindon 1.60 15:00 1.40 Grimsby
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 43.9%49%-4.9%
DCHome or away 74.9%80%-4.6%
DNBAway (DNB) 57.7%65%-7.6%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 51.4%62%-11.1%
BTTSBTTS yes 53.9%no line
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson41.3%25.6%33.1%
xgboost24.6%24.8%50.6%
logistic30.4%26.7%43.0%
Inputs the models saw
SwindonGrimsby
Elo (pre-match)14551493
Surface Elo14551493
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.601.40
Form trend-0.60-0.90
Season points per game1.131.25
Season goals for / game0.881.88
Season goals against / game0.881.50
Rest days1414
Head-to-head (last 10)7 W2 W · 1 D
Swindon: last 5
10 NovAPlymouth1 - 2L
07 NovAMilton Keynes Dons1 - 2L
31 OctHRotherham2 - 1W
31 OctHRotherham2 - 1W
24 OctABristol Rovers0 - 0D
Grimsby: last 5
10 NovHNottingham Forest0 - 3L
08 NovAStafford Rangers2 - 2D
31 OctHYork5 - 2W
31 OctHYork5 - 2W
24 OctAGillingham4 - 1W
Head to head
25 Apr 2026Grimsby4 - 0Swindon
22 Nov 2025Swindon2 - 2Grimsby
18 Apr 2025Grimsby0 - 4Swindon
21 Dec 2024Swindon3 - 1Grimsby
20 Apr 2024Grimsby2 - 0Swindon
30 Sep 2023Swindon2 - 1Grimsby
14 Jan 2023Swindon5 - 0Grimsby
24 Sep 2022Grimsby1 - 2Swindon
22 Feb 2020Swindon3 - 1Grimsby
07 Dec 2019Grimsby0 - 3Swindon
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.0548.8%12 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7027.0%12 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home3.2530.8%12 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6062.5%12 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.2544.4%12 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 21:43 UTC