| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.6% | 54% | -6.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 74.5% | 77% | -3.0% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 62.7% | 70% | -7.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.1% | 71% | -5.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 29.4% | 23.1% | 47.6% |
| xgboost | 24.5% | 38.5% | 37.0% |
| logistic | 30.7% | 26.8% | 42.5% |
| Hamburg | Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1579 | 1703 |
| Surface Elo | 1579 | 1703 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Hoffenheim | 3 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Hoffenheim | 3 - 2 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Copenhagen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | FC Koln | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | RB Leipzig | 0 - 5 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | FC Koln | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Slovan Bratislava | 3 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Hoffenheim | 3 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Paderborn | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Paderborn | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Apr 2026 | Stuttgart | 4 - 0 | Hamburg |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Hamburg | 2 - 1 | Stuttgart |
| 28 May 2020 | Stuttgart | 3 - 2 | Hamburg |
| 26 Oct 2019 | Hamburg | 6 - 2 | Stuttgart |
| 31 Mar 2018 | Stuttgart | 1 - 1 | Hamburg |
| 04 Nov 2017 | Hamburg | 3 - 1 | Stuttgart |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.87 | 53.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.29 | 23.3% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.98 | 25.1% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.40 | 71.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.00 | 33.3% | 16 Oct 06:15 |