| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 71.3% | 72% | -0.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 21.4% | 78.6% |
| logistic | 35.3% | 64.7% |
| Adrian Mannarino | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1688 | 1825 |
| Surface Elo | 1688 | 1825 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 27 Sep | H | Denis Shapovalov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Alejandro Tabilo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Alejandro Tabilo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Juncheng Shang | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Juncheng Shang | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Vit Kopriva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Tallon Griekspoor | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Tallon Griekspoor | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Sep | A | Ben Shelton | 1 - 3 | L |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Adrian Mannarino | 1 - 2 | Denis Shapovalov |
| 14 Aug 2026 | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | Denis Shapovalov |
| 29 Jul 2024 | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | Denis Shapovalov |
| 23 Oct 2017 | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 1 | Denis Shapovalov |
| 07 Aug 2017 | Adrian Mannarino | 1 - 2 | Denis Shapovalov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.38 | 72.5% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.15 | 31.8% | 27 Sep 06:15 |