| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.3% | 75% | -3.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 71.3% | 28.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 80.3% | 19.6% |
| logistic | 69.6% | 30.4% |
| Ben Shelton | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2069 | 1855 |
| Surface Elo | 2069 | 1855 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 11 Oct | A | Arthur Gea | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Daniel Altmaier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Daniel Altmaier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Alexander Zverev | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 Sep | H | Frances Tiafoe | 3 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Ben Shelton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Ugo Humbert | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Ugo Humbert | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Jaime Faria | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Jaime Faria | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Arthur Gea | 2 - 0 | Ben Shelton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.34 | 74.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |