OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-08
🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Sunday 08 November 2026, 19:45 UTC · finished
Lens 1.80 1 - 2 2.40 Marseille
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 50.7%43%+8.1%✗ miss
DCHome or away 76.2%78%-1.4%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 65.4%57%+8.6%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 59.0%66%-6.6%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 60.6%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson45.8%24.2%30.0%
xgboost49.8%24.6%25.6%
logistic53.4%23.7%23.0%
Inputs the models saw
LensMarseille
Elo (pre-match)17461720
Surface Elo17461720
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.802.40
Form trend0.00-0.60
Season points per game1.441.67
Season goals for / game1.782.22
Season goals against / game1.441.44
Rest days87
Head-to-head (last 10)6 W4 W · 0 D
Lens: last 5
04 NovHComo1 - 9L
30 OctALille0 - 1L
30 OctALille0 - 1L
24 OctHParis FC2 - 1W
24 OctHParis FC2 - 1W
Marseille: last 5
05 NovABayer Leverkusen1 - 0W
01 NovHToulouse2 - 0W
01 NovHToulouse2 - 0W
25 OctHLe Havre4 - 3W
25 OctHLe Havre4 - 3W
Head to head
24 Jan 2026Marseille3 - 1Lens
25 Oct 2025Lens2 - 1Marseille
08 Mar 2025Marseille0 - 1Lens
23 Nov 2024Lens1 - 3Marseille
28 Apr 2024Marseille2 - 1Lens
12 Nov 2023Lens1 - 0Marseille
06 May 2023Lens2 - 1Marseille
22 Oct 2022Marseille0 - 1Lens
22 Jan 2022Lens0 - 2Marseille
26 Sep 2021Marseille2 - 3Lens
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.0033.3%08 Nov 19:45
Bet3651X2draw3.8026.3%08 Nov 19:45
Bet3651X2home2.2045.5%08 Nov 19:45
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.6261.7%08 Nov 19:45
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.3043.5%08 Nov 19:45
SportyBet1X2away2.9434.0%08 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7726.5%08 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.4141.5%08 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6162.1%08 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.4041.7%08 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 22:03 UTC