| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 83.2% | 98% | -14.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 10.5% | 89.5% |
| logistic | 19.7% | 80.3% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Xinyu Gao | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1492 | 1966 |
| Surface Elo | 1492 | 1966 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 34 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | H | Panna Udvardy | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Iga Swiatek | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Panna Udvardy | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Jorge, Francisca | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Jul | A | Lilli Tagger | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Elise Mertens | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Iva Jovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Donna Vekic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Xinyu Gao | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Qinwen Zheng | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Iga Swiatek | 2 - 0 | Xinyu Gao |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.02 | 98.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 18.00 | 5.6% | 02 Oct 06:15 |