| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.5% | 32% | +20.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 77.8% | 77% | +0.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.1% | 44% | +21.8% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.7% | 56% | -3.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 52.9% | 26.8% | 20.3% |
| xgboost | 50.5% | 27.1% | 22.4% |
| logistic | 43.6% | 14.8% | 41.6% |
| Novara | Cittadella | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1423 | 1380 |
| Surface Elo | 1423 | 1380 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 3067 | 514 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 04 Oct | A | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | ACD Ospitaletto | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Carpi | 2 - 2 | D |
| 18 May | H | Virtus Entella | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 May | A | Perugia | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | US Albinoleffe | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Lecco | 3 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | ACD Ospitaletto | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 May | H | Salernitana | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 May | H | Bari | 3 - 1 | W |
| 11 Feb 2018 | Cittadella | 1 - 3 | Novara |
| 16 Sep 2017 | Novara | 1 - 0 | Cittadella |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.97 | 50.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.78 | 56.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |