OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-11
⚽ Portugal Liga Portugal 3 · Sunday 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC · finished
Guimaraes 1.00 0 - 1 1.20 Pacos Ferreira
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 56.0%49%+7.1%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 83.4%79%+4.2%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 76.5%67%+9.1%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 56.3%53%+3.7%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 54.2%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson50.3%27.4%22.3%
xgboost56.2%26.0%17.8%
logistic67.8%22.6%9.6%
Inputs the models saw
GuimaraesPacos Ferreira
Elo (pre-match)14821414
Surface Elo14821414
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.001.20
Form trend0.400.30
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days201232
Head-to-head (last 10)7 W1 W · 2 D
Guimaraes: last 5
20 SepHMoreirense1 - 1D
20 SepHMoreirense1 - 1D
12 SepAAcademico Viseu1 - 2L
06 SepHCasa Pia0 - 0D
31 AugASp Braga0 - 1L
Pacos Ferreira: last 5
27 MayASp Braga0 - 3L
21 MayHRio Ave3 - 1W
13 MayAChaves0 - 2L
07 MayHSp Lisbon0 - 4L
29 AprAVizela2 - 1W
Head to head
01 Apr 2023Guimaraes0 - 0Pacos Ferreira
08 Oct 2022Pacos Ferreira0 - 1Guimaraes
15 Apr 2022Guimaraes4 - 0Pacos Ferreira
04 Dec 2021Pacos Ferreira1 - 2Guimaraes
21 Feb 2021Pacos Ferreira2 - 1Guimaraes
02 Oct 2020Guimaraes1 - 0Pacos Ferreira
08 Mar 2020Pacos Ferreira1 - 2Guimaraes
29 Sep 2019Guimaraes1 - 0Pacos Ferreira
04 Feb 2018Guimaraes3 - 2Pacos Ferreira
26 Aug 2017Pacos Ferreira0 - 0Guimaraes
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.2031.2%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.2530.8%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.1047.6%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.8853.2%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.7955.9%11 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:23 UTC