OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-04

NFL · Sunday 04 October 2026, 20:25 UTC · finished

San Francisco 49ers – 24 - 14 – Denver Broncos

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	59.4%	no line		✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	59.4%	40.6%

Inputs the models saw

	San Francisco 49ers	Denver Broncos
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.02
form diff	0.12
rest diff	0.03
home field	1.00
point diff	0.29
opponent strength diff	-0.02
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-03T20:25:00+00:00

San Francisco 49ers: last 5

27 Sep	H	Arizona Cardinals	36 - 30	W
20 Sep	H	Miami Dolphins	35 - 13	W
11 Sep	A	Los Angeles Rams	27 - 7	W
18 Jan	A	Seattle Seahawks	6 - 41	L
11 Jan	A	Philadelphia Eagles	23 - 19	W

Denver Broncos: last 5

28 Sep	H	Los Angeles Rams	30 - 26	W
20 Sep	H	Jacksonville Jaguars	20 - 13	W
15 Sep	A	Kansas City Chiefs	10 - 31	L
25 Jan	H	New England Patriots	7 - 10	L
17 Jan	H	Buffalo Bills	33 - 30	W

Head to head

26 Sep 2022	Denver Broncos	11 - 10	San Francisco 49ers
09 Dec 2018	San Francisco 49ers	20 - 14	Denver Broncos
20 Oct 2014	Denver Broncos	42 - 17	San Francisco 49ers
31 Oct 2010	San Francisco 49ers	24 - 16	Denver Broncos
31 Dec 2006	Denver Broncos	23 - 26	San Francisco 49ers
15 Sep 2002	San Francisco 49ers	14 - 24	Denver Broncos
23 Dec 2000	Denver Broncos	38 - 9	San Francisco 49ers

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.64	61.0%	04 Oct 15:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	2.41	41.5%	04 Oct 15:20

Generated 2026-10-30 17:08 UTC