| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 82.1% | 79% | +3.3% |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 23.0% | 76.9% |
| logistic | 18.6% | 81.4% |
| markov | abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0) | |
| Ben Shelton | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2030 | 2344 |
| Surface Elo | 2030 | 2344 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W 路 0 D |
| 08 Nov | H | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Nov | A | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Nov | H | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Tommy Paul | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Tommy Paul | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Nov | A | Ben Shelton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Nov | A | Casper Ruud | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Nov | H | Casper Ruud | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Nov | A | Taylor Fritz | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Taylor Fritz | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Ben Shelton | 0 - 2 | Carlos Alcaraz |
| 08 Sep 2026 | Ben Shelton | 3 - 2 | Carlos Alcaraz |
| 26 May 2025 | Ben Shelton | 1 - 3 | Carlos Alcaraz |
| 20 Sep 2024 | Ben Shelton | 0 - 2 | Carlos Alcaraz |
| 07 Aug 2023 | Ben Shelton | 0 - 2 | Carlos Alcaraz |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | h2h | Ben Shelton | 4.03 | 24.8% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| 1xBet | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.26 | 79.4% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| 888sport | h2h | Ben Shelton | 4.20 | 23.8% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| 888sport | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.22 | 82.0% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| BetAnything | h2h | Ben Shelton | 4.10 | 24.4% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| BetAnything | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.25 | 80.0% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Betclic (FR) | h2h | Ben Shelton | 3.55 | 28.2% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Betclic (FR) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.24 | 80.7% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Ben Shelton | 4.20 | 23.8% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.30 | 76.9% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Ben Shelton | 4.30 | 23.3% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.31 | 76.3% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Ben Shelton | 3.99 | 25.1% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.27 | 78.7% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Betsson | h2h | Ben Shelton | 3.85 | 26.0% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Betsson | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.27 | 78.7% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Coolbet | h2h | Ben Shelton | 4.20 | 23.8% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Coolbet | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.26 | 79.4% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| GTbets | h2h | Ben Shelton | 3.77 | 26.5% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| GTbets | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.30 | 76.9% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | h2h | Ben Shelton | 4.00 | 25.0% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.25 | 80.0% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Ben Shelton | 4.00 | 25.0% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | 78.1% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Ben Shelton | 4.60 | 21.7% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.34 | 74.6% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Nordic Bet | h2h | Ben Shelton | 3.85 | 26.0% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Nordic Bet | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.27 | 78.7% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Ben Shelton | 4.28 | 23.4% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.26 | 79.4% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Ben Shelton | 3.75 | 26.7% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.20 | 83.3% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.27 | 78.7% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.90 | 25.6% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| Tipico | h2h | Ben Shelton | 3.80 | 26.3% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Tipico | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.25 | 80.0% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (FR) | h2h | Ben Shelton | 3.55 | 28.2% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (FR) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.24 | 80.7% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Ben Shelton | 4.00 | 25.0% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.25 | 80.0% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Ben Shelton | 4.00 | 25.0% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.25 | 80.0% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| William Hill | h2h | Ben Shelton | 4.20 | 23.8% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| William Hill | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.22 | 82.0% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Ben Shelton | 4.20 | 23.8% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.25 | 80.0% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Ben Shelton | 3.75 | 26.7% | 08 Nov 06:01 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.21 | 82.6% | 08 Nov 06:01 |