| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.9% | 35% | +12.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.9% | 77% | -1.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 59.8% | 47% | +12.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% | 66% | +2.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 26.2% | 24.2% | 49.6% |
| xgboost | 39.2% | 26.4% | 34.4% |
| logistic | 42.0% | 27.7% | 30.3% |
| Union Berlin | Elversberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1531 | 1584 |
| Surface Elo | 1531 | 1584 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| Season points per game | 0.25 | 1.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 4.25 | 1.75 |
| Rest days | 21 | 19 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Sep | A | Bayern München | 0 - 7 | L |
| 11 Sep | H | Schalke 04 | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 - 4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 - 3 | D |
| 16 May | H | Augsburg | 4 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Schalke 04 | 0 - 0 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Bayern München | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 - 3 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 May | H | Preußen Münster | 3 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.83 | 26.1% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.48 | 40.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.52 | 65.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |