| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.2% | 53% | +6.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 84.6% | 83% | +1.6% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 77.9% | 73% | +5.2% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.6% | 51% | +0.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 55.8% | 25.4% | 18.9% |
| xgboost | 71.8% | 17.7% | 10.6% |
| logistic | 67.2% | 24.3% | 8.4% |
| Athletic Club | Extremadura UD | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1609 | 1427 |
| Surface Elo | 1609 | 1427 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 14 | 2266 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | A | Sociedad | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Arenas Club Getxo | 3 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | RC Deportivo Fabril | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Alaves | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Elche | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Zamora CF | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Cultural Leonesa | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Jul | A | Las Palmas | 1 - 5 | L |
| 17 Jul | H | Sp Gijon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Jul | A | La Coruna | 3 - 2 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.92 | 52.1% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.91 | 52.4% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.77 | 56.5% | 04 Oct 06:15 |