OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-18

NFL · Sunday 18 October 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

Atlanta Falcons – 23 - 31 – Chicago Bears

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	51.7%	52%	-0.1%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	48.3%	51.7%

Inputs the models saw

	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.11
form diff	0.12
rest diff	-0.04
home field	1.00
point diff	-0.11
opponent strength diff	-0.09
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-17T17:00:00+00:00

Atlanta Falcons: last 5

12 Oct	H	Baltimore Ravens	23 - 30	L
06 Oct	A	New Orleans Saints	45 - 24	W
25 Sep	A	Green Bay Packers	35 - 14	W
20 Sep	H	Carolina Panthers	3 - 34	L
13 Sep	A	Pittsburgh Steelers	13 - 20	L

Chicago Bears: last 5

11 Oct	A	Green Bay Packers	7 - 31	L
04 Oct	H	New York Jets	23 - 12	W
29 Sep	H	Philadelphia Eagles	27 - 7	W
20 Sep	H	Minnesota Vikings	3 - 9	L
13 Sep	A	Carolina Panthers	59 - 37	W

Head to head

31 Dec 2023	Chicago Bears	37 - 17	Atlanta Falcons
20 Nov 2022	Atlanta Falcons	27 - 24	Chicago Bears
27 Sep 2020	Atlanta Falcons	26 - 30	Chicago Bears
10 Sep 2017	Chicago Bears	17 - 23	Atlanta Falcons
12 Oct 2014	Atlanta Falcons	13 - 27	Chicago Bears
11 Sep 2011	Chicago Bears	30 - 12	Atlanta Falcons
19 Oct 2009	Atlanta Falcons	21 - 14	Chicago Bears
12 Oct 2008	Atlanta Falcons	22 - 20	Chicago Bears
19 Dec 2005	Chicago Bears	16 - 3	Atlanta Falcons
15 Sep 2002	Atlanta Falcons	13 - 14	Chicago Bears

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	2.00	50.0%	18 Oct 16:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	1.91	52.4%	18 Oct 16:20

Generated 2026-10-30 15:53 UTC