| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.0% | 31% | +15.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 77.0% | 77% | +0.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.2% | 43% | +16.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 56% | -0.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 48.8% | 25.2% | 26.0% |
| xgboost | 37.5% | 20.7% | 41.7% |
| logistic | 44.7% | 28.8% | 26.5% |
| Notts County | Sheffield Weds | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1463 | 1427 |
| Surface Elo | 1463 | 1427 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.33 | 2.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Wycombe | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Wycombe | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Nottingham Forest | 5 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Oxford | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Oxford | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | AFC Wimbledon | 5 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | AFC Wimbledon | 5 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Huddersfield | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Huddersfield | 2 - 2 | D |
| 06 Oct | H | Sunderland | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.20 | 31.2% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.82 | 54.9% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.96 | 51.0% | 20 Oct 06:15 |