| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.7% | 44% | +2.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 74.8% | 74% | +0.7% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.6% | 61% | +0.3% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.4% | 57% | -1.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.4% | 28.5% | 29.1% |
| xgboost | 44.1% | 30.4% | 25.5% |
| logistic | 43.0% | 28.3% | 28.7% |
| Northampton | Tranmere | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1319 | 1336 |
| Surface Elo | 1319 | 1336 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 0.60 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.60 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Grimsby | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Grimsby | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | York | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | York | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Oct | A | Cambridge | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Barnet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Barnet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Rochdale | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Rochdale | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Chesterfield | 2 - 4 | L |
| 08 May 2023 | Tranmere | 0 - 1 | Northampton |
| 03 Dec 2022 | Northampton | 0 - 0 | Tranmere |
| 05 Mar 2022 | Northampton | 3 - 2 | Tranmere |
| 23 Oct 2021 | Tranmere | 0 - 2 | Northampton |
| 05 Feb 2019 | Tranmere | 1 - 2 | Northampton |
| 01 Sep 2018 | Northampton | 1 - 1 | Tranmere |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.72 | 58.1% | 20 Oct 06:15 |