| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 44.3% | 47% | -2.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.9% | 75% | -0.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 56.9% | 65% | -8.0% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.6% | 52% | +4.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 33.5% | 24.6% | 41.9% |
| xgboost | 28.1% | 32.9% | 38.9% |
| logistic | 33.3% | 29.2% | 37.5% |
| Lorient | Monaco | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1647 | 1773 |
| Surface Elo | 1647 | 1773 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 2 W · 5 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Paris FC | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Paris FC | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Le Mans | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Toulouse | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Lens | 1 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | PFC CSKA Sofia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Toulouse | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Toulouse | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Pisa | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Lens | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Monaco | 1 - 3 | Lorient |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Lorient | 3 - 1 | Monaco |
| 17 Mar 2024 | Monaco | 2 - 2 | Lorient |
| 17 Sep 2023 | Lorient | 2 - 2 | Monaco |
| 16 Apr 2023 | Monaco | 3 - 1 | Lorient |
| 11 Jan 2023 | Lorient | 2 - 2 | Monaco |
| 13 Feb 2022 | Monaco | 0 - 0 | Lorient |
| 13 Aug 2021 | Lorient | 1 - 0 | Monaco |
| 14 Feb 2021 | Monaco | 2 - 2 | Lorient |
| 06 Jan 2021 | Lorient | 2 - 5 | Monaco |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.13 | 46.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.51 | 28.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.62 | 27.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.91 | 52.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.90 | 52.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |