| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.2% | 65% | -5.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 65.1% | 34.8% |
| logistic | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| Andrej Martin | Tiago Cacao | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1526 | 1398 |
| Surface Elo | 1526 | 1398 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 4 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Duje Ajdukovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Joao Domingues | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Alejandro Moro Canas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Sergi Perez Contri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Olle Wallin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Milos Karol | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Anton Matusevich | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.53 | 65.4% | 18 Oct 06:15 |