| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.0% | 61% | -0.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 26.3% | 73.6% |
| logistic | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| August Holmgren | Andrea Guerrieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1604 | 1648 |
| Surface Elo | 1604 | 1648 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Benjamin Bonzi | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Henrique Rocha | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Benjamin Bonzi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Vadym Ursu | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Anton Matusevich | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | August Holmgren | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Anton Matusevich | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Jesper De Jong | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Francesco Maestrelli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Andrea Guerrieri | 0 - 2 | August Holmgren |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.59 | 62.9% | 01 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 01 Oct 06:15 |