| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.9% | 55% | -3.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 76.2% | 86% | -9.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 66.9% | 77% | -10.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 62% | -11.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 27.5% | 29.5% | 43.0% |
| xgboost | 26.6% | 22.9% | 50.5% |
| logistic | 23.0% | 27.9% | 49.1% |
| Casa Pia | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1438 | 1582 |
| Surface Elo | 1438 | 1582 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.57 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.43 | 1.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.29 | 0.57 |
| Rest days | 19 | 19 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 2 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Estoril | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Estoril | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Porto | 1 - 4 | L |
| 06 Sep | A | Guimaraes | 0 - 0 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Moreirense | 0 - 1 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Real SC Queluz | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Sp Braga | 0 - 0 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Sp Braga | 0 - 0 | D |
| 13 Sep | A | Arouca | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Sep | H | Rio Ave | 4 - 0 | W |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Casa Pia | 0 - 0 | Santa Clara |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Santa Clara | 1 - 0 | Casa Pia |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Santa Clara | 2 - 1 | Casa Pia |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Casa Pia | 0 - 2 | Santa Clara |
| 29 Jan 2023 | Casa Pia | 2 - 1 | Santa Clara |
| 07 Aug 2022 | Santa Clara | 0 - 0 | Casa Pia |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 10 Oct 20:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 10 Oct 20:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Oct 20:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.20 | 45.5% | 10 Oct 20:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.65 | 60.6% | 10 Oct 20:30 |