| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.9% | 50% | +5.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| logistic | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| Corentin Moutet | Felix Balshaw | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1727 | 1674 |
| Surface Elo | 1727 | 1674 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | H | Felix Balshaw | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Ugo Humbert | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Ugo Humbert | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Sep | H | Dane Sweeny | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Aug | H | Rafael Jodar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Corentin Moutet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Jaime Faria | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Jaime Faria | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Mika Brunold | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | H | Matisse Bobichon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Corentin Moutet | 2 - 0 | Felix Balshaw |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.86 | 53.8% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.99 | 50.2% | 21 Oct 06:15 |