| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.3% | 61% | +0.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 41.6% | 58.3% |
| logistic | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| Yuta Shimizu | Bernard Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1548 | 1653 |
| Surface Elo | 1548 | 1653 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | A | Stefanos Sakellaridis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Bernard Tomic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Stefanos Sakellaridis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | H | Philip Sekulic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Philip Sekulic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Fajing Sun | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Yuta Shimizu | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Fajing Sun | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Fajing Sun | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Pavel Kotov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Bernard Tomic | 2 - 1 | Yuta Shimizu |
| 25 May 2026 | Bernard Tomic | 2 - 1 | Yuta Shimizu |
| 27 May 2024 | Bernard Tomic | 0 - 1 | Yuta Shimizu |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.63 | 61.4% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 30 Sep 06:15 |