OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-11

NFL · Sunday 11 October 2026, 13:30 UTC · finished

Jacksonville Jaguars – 19 - 17 – Philadelphia Eagles

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	65.2%	79%	-13.5%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	65.2%	34.8%

Inputs the models saw

	Jacksonville Jaguars	Philadelphia Eagles
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.01
form diff	0.25
rest diff	0.00
home field	1.00
point diff	1.06
opponent strength diff	0.03
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-10T13:30:00+00:00

Jacksonville Jaguars: last 5

04 Oct	A	Cincinnati Bengals	22 - 17	W
27 Sep	H	New England Patriots	35 - 6	W
20 Sep	A	Denver Broncos	13 - 20	L
13 Sep	H	Cleveland Browns	34 - 10	W
11 Jan	H	Buffalo Bills	24 - 27	L

Philadelphia Eagles: last 5

04 Oct	H	Los Angeles Rams	20 - 24	L
29 Sep	A	Chicago Bears	7 - 27	L
20 Sep	A	Tennessee Titans	24 - 20	W
13 Sep	H	Washington Commanders	24 - 22	W
11 Jan	H	San Francisco 49ers	19 - 23	L

Head to head

03 Nov 2024	Philadelphia Eagles	28 - 23	Jacksonville Jaguars
02 Oct 2022	Philadelphia Eagles	29 - 21	Jacksonville Jaguars
29 Oct 2018	Jacksonville Jaguars	18 - 24	Philadelphia Eagles
07 Sep 2014	Philadelphia Eagles	34 - 17	Jacksonville Jaguars
26 Sep 2010	Jacksonville Jaguars	3 - 28	Philadelphia Eagles
29 Oct 2006	Philadelphia Eagles	6 - 13	Jacksonville Jaguars
06 Oct 2002	Jacksonville Jaguars	28 - 25	Philadelphia Eagles

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.26	79.4%	11 Oct 12:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	4.10	24.4%	11 Oct 12:20

Generated 2026-10-30 19:23 UTC