| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 56.4% | 53% | +3.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| logistic | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | Daniel Merida | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1819 | 1888 |
| Surface Elo | 1819 | 1888 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 34 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | H | Daniel Merida | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Francisco Cerundolo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Francisco Cerundolo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Valentin Royer | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Sep | A | Alex Michelsen | 0 - 3 | L |
| 02 Sep | A | Andrey Rublev | 3 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Marton Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | W |
| 18 Aug | H | Taylor Fritz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct 2026 | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 2 - 1 | Daniel Merida |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.89 | 52.9% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.96 | 51.0% | 07 Oct 06:15 |