| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.6% | 63% | -3.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 35.9% | 64.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| logistic | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| Gonzalo Bueno | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1573 | 1674 |
| Surface Elo | 1573 | 1674 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 2.45 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.55 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 0.45 |
| Rest days | 6 | 14 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | A | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Hernan Casanova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Hernan Casanova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Maximo Zeitune | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Juan Bautista Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Juan Bautista Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Jan 2026 | Alex Barrena | 2 - 0 | Gonzalo Bueno |
| 08 Jan 2024 | Alex Barrena | 1 - 2 | Gonzalo Bueno |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.60 | 62.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 27 Oct 06:15 |