| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 48.2% | 40% | +8.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.3% | 75% | +0.5% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 60.7% | 56% | +4.8% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.3% | 55% | -3.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.3% | 26.4% | 32.3% |
| xgboost | 29.2% | 26.2% | 44.6% |
| logistic | 32.1% | 28.5% | 39.4% |
| Derby | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1501 | 1602 |
| Surface Elo | 1501 | 1602 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.63 | 1.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Brentford | 2 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Burnley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Burnley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Birmingham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Sep | H | West Brom | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Southampton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Southampton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Sep | A | West Ham | 0 - 6 | L |
| 08 Sep | H | Burnley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Swansea | 0 - 0 | D |
| 04 Jan 2026 | Derby | 1 - 2 | Wrexham |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Wrexham | 1 - 1 | Derby |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.70 | 37.0% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.88 | 53.2% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.98 | 50.5% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.46 | 40.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.41 | 29.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.02 | 33.1% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.99 | 50.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.86 | 53.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |