| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 80.0% | 89% | -9.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 81.1% | 18.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 82.5% | 17.5% |
| logistic | 68.7% | 31.3% |
| Karolina Muchova | Katie Boulter | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1901 | 1622 |
| Surface Elo | 1901 | 1622 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 33 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | H | Nikola Bartunkova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Naomi Osaka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Liudmila Samsonova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Katie Boulter | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Emma Navarro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Mai Hontama | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Karolina Muchova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Mai Hontama | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Karolina Muchova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Carol Young Suh Lee | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Karolina Muchova | 2 - 0 | Katie Boulter |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Karolina Muchova | 2 - 0 | Katie Boulter |
| 17 Mar 2026 | Karolina Muchova | 2 - 0 | Katie Boulter |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.75 | 17.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.16 | 86.2% | 02 Oct 06:15 |