| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.6% | 75% | -9.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 75.3% | 24.6% |
| logistic | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Paula Badosa | Harriet Dart | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1627 | 1527 |
| Surface Elo | 1627 | 1527 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.44 | 1.83 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.89 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Oct | H | Sinja Kraus | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Oct | H | Carol Young Suh Lee | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Antonia Ruzic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Antonia Ruzic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Jelena Ostapenko | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Janice Tjen | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Oct | H | Tatiana Prozorova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Mei Yamaguchi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Shek, Cheuk Ying | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Talia Gibson | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Jan 2023 | Harriet Dart | 1 - 2 | Paula Badosa |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.50 | 28.6% | 29 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.33 | 75.2% | 29 Oct 06:15 |