| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.6% | 42% | +4.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 72.9% | 77% | -3.9% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.7% | 59% | +0.8% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.1% | 56% | -1.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.4% | 32.2% | 30.5% |
| xgboost | 33.7% | 32.4% | 33.9% |
| logistic | 34.7% | 29.5% | 35.8% |
| Sudtirol | Ascoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1444 | 1460 |
| Surface Elo | 1444 | 1460 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 20 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Arezzo | 4 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Arezzo | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Reggiana | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Modena | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Catanzaro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | SC Trestina | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Avellino | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Avellino | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Napoli | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Padova | 0 - 1 | L |
| 04 Feb 2024 | Ascoli | 1 - 2 | Sudtirol |
| 02 Sep 2023 | Sudtirol | 3 - 1 | Ascoli |
| 15 Apr 2023 | Ascoli | 1 - 0 | Sudtirol |
| 27 Nov 2022 | Sudtirol | 2 - 2 | Ascoli |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.65 | 37.7% | 10 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.10 | 32.3% | 10 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.65 | 37.7% | 10 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.08 | 48.1% | 10 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.73 | 57.8% | 10 Oct 14:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.00 | 50.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.78 | 56.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |