| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.9% | 56% | -1.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| logistic | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| Tristan Boyer | Elmer Moller | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1659 | 1669 |
| Surface Elo | 1659 | 1669 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.71 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.13 | 1.43 |
| Rest days | 2 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | H | Vilius Gaubas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Alejandro Moro Canas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Svyatoslav Gulin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Henrique Rocha | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Max Alcala Gurri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Tristan Boyer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Lukas Neumayer | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Elmer Moller | 2 - 0 | Tristan Boyer |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.85 | 54.0% | 19 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.89 | 52.9% | 19 Oct 06:15 |