| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.9% | 40% | +11.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.3% | 67% | +11.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.8% | 55% | +14.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% | 61% | +2.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 55.6% | 24.6% | 19.8% |
| xgboost | 47.8% | 26.1% | 26.2% |
| logistic | 50.6% | 25.6% | 23.8% |
| Lens | Paris FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1746 | 1715 |
| Surface Elo | 1746 | 1715 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.80 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 1 W · 2 D |
| 21 Oct | A | Club Brugge | 0 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Troyes | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Troyes | 3 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Sporting | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Lyon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Rennes | 4 - 3 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Rennes | 4 - 3 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Quevilly Rouen | 3 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Lorient | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Lorient | 0 - 1 | L |
| 14 Feb 2026 | Paris FC | 0 - 5 | Lens |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Lens | 2 - 1 | Paris FC |
| 02 Mar 2020 | Paris FC | 0 - 2 | Lens |
| 28 Sep 2019 | Lens | 2 - 1 | Paris FC |
| 03 Mar 2019 | Paris FC | 2 - 0 | Lens |
| 28 Sep 2018 | Lens | 0 - 0 | Paris FC |
| 30 Apr 2018 | Lens | 1 - 0 | Paris FC |
| 08 Dec 2017 | Paris FC | 2 - 2 | Lens |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.87 | 34.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.49 | 40.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.64 | 61.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |