| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 80.1% | 80% | -0.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 70.5% | 29.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 82.5% | 17.4% |
| logistic | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| Francesco Passaro | Tiago Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1695 | 1484 |
| Surface Elo | 1695 | 1484 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.83 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Zsombor Piros | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Tiago Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Francesco Passaro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | A | Marvin Moeller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Marvin Moeller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Jerome Kym | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Jerome Kym | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Francesco Passaro | 2 - 0 | Tiago Torres |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.55 | 28.2% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.27 | 78.7% | 14 Oct 06:15 |