| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.3% | 47% | +0.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.3% | 76% | -0.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.6% | 64% | -1.6% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.7% | 54% | +5.8% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.5% | 27.4% | 28.1% |
| xgboost | 43.0% | 30.0% | 26.9% |
| logistic | 44.8% | 28.8% | 26.4% |
| Rotherham | Newport County | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1355 | 1394 |
| Surface Elo | 1355 | 1394 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.70 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Fleetwood Town | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Fleetwood Town | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Gillingham | 1 - 4 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Gillingham | 1 - 4 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Bradford | 0 - 4 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | York | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | York | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Colchester | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Colchester | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Plymouth | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.92 | 52.1% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.85 | 54.0% | 20 Oct 06:15 |