OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-18

NFL · Sunday 18 October 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 19 - 26 – Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	50.6%	45%	+5.8%	✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	50.6%	49.4%

Inputs the models saw

	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Pittsburgh Steelers
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.18
form diff	-0.25
rest diff	0.39
home field	1.00
point diff	0.10
opponent strength diff	-0.05
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-17T17:00:00+00:00

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: last 5

09 Oct	A	Dallas Cowboys	24 - 16	W
04 Oct	H	Green Bay Packers	14 - 17	L
27 Sep	H	Minnesota Vikings	16 - 23	L
20 Sep	H	Cleveland Browns	19 - 23	L
13 Sep	A	Cincinnati Bengals	27 - 33	L

Pittsburgh Steelers: last 5

11 Oct	H	Indianapolis Colts	34 - 22	W
02 Oct	A	Cleveland Browns	24 - 27	L
27 Sep	H	Cincinnati Bengals	30 - 27	W
20 Sep	A	New England Patriots	3 - 20	L
13 Sep	H	Atlanta Falcons	20 - 13	W

Head to head

16 Oct 2022	Pittsburgh Steelers	20 - 18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
25 Sep 2018	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27 - 30	Pittsburgh Steelers
28 Sep 2014	Pittsburgh Steelers	24 - 27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26 Sep 2010	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13 - 38	Pittsburgh Steelers
03 Dec 2006	Pittsburgh Steelers	20 - 3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
23 Dec 2002	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7 - 17	Pittsburgh Steelers
21 Oct 2001	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10 - 17	Pittsburgh Steelers

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	2.22	45.0%	18 Oct 16:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	1.74	57.5%	18 Oct 16:20

Generated 2026-10-30 15:53 UTC