| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.7% | 79% | -17.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 78.8% | 21.2% |
| logistic | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Philip Henning | Ivan Marrero Curbelo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1527 | 1508 |
| Surface Elo | 1527 | 1508 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Borna Gojo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Maks Kasnikowski | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Thijs Boogaard | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Tristan Schoolkate | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Tristan Schoolkate | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Joshua Sheehy | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Luca Potenza | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Maks Kasnikowski | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Andy Andrade | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Blaise Bicknell | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.50 | 28.6% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.27 | 78.7% | 05 Oct 06:15 |